Objectives: Pre-therapeutic prediction of outcome is important for clinicians and patients in determining whether selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is indicated for hepatic metastases of colorectal cancer (CRC).
Methods: Pre-therapeutic characteristics of 100 patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) treated by radioembolization were analyzed to develop a nomogram for predicting survival. Prognostic factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequent tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The nomogram was validated with reference to an external patient cohort (n = 25) from the Bonn University Department of Nuclear Medicine.
Results: Of the 13 parameters tested, four were independently associated with reduced patient survival in multivariate analysis. These parameters included no liver surgery before SIRT (HR:1.81, p = 0.014), CEA serum level ≥ 150 ng/ml (HR:2.08, p = 0.001), transaminase toxicity level ≥2.5× upper limit of normal (HR:2.82, p = 0.001), and summed computed tomography (CT) size of the largest two liver lesions ≥10 cm (HR:2.31, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for our prediction model was 0.83 for the external patient cohort, indicating superior performance of our multivariate model compared to a model ignoring covariates.
Conclusions: The nomogram developed in our study entailing four pre-therapeutic parameters gives good prediction of patient survival post SIRT.
Key points: • Four individual parameters predicted reduced survival following SIRT in CRC. • These parameters were combined into a nomogram of pre-therapeutic risk stratification. • The model provided good prediction of survival in two independent patient cohorts.