Perinatal mortality in Bavaria, Germany, after the Chernobyl reactor accident

Abstract

As has been shown by the authors of a paper recently published in this journal, a deviation from a long-term trend in perinatal mortality within the former Federal Republic of Germany occurred in 1987, i.e. 1 year following the Chernobyl disaster. It is the aim of this study to make a comparison between the areas of the state Bavaria, Germany, with different fallout levels as well as between the observed and expected numbers of perinatal deaths relating to these areas. The expected numbers of perinatal deaths, defined as external standard, were derived from the remainder of the former FRG. Testing an a priori formulated hypothesis revealed no differences in the temporal development of perinatal mortality between the areas with different fallout levels and subsequent exposures. Including May 1986 into the analysis revealed a significant increase during the first 3 months after the accident, which is due to an excess in May alone. Since no elevated radiation risks for the last days in utero are known, the additional Chernobyl radiation exposure is not plausible as a causative agent. Further analyses on stillbirths showed an increase in Southern Bavaria during the first 2 years following the accident. Later on, the rates were comparable to the expected values again.